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1992-07-27
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THE MCNISH-LINCOLN SUNSPOT PREDICTION PROGRAM
===============================================================================
Files:
SUNSPOT.EXE -sunspot prediction program (executable version).
SUNSPOT.DAT -smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (Jan 1749 - present);
month cycle began entered in columns 6-7; sequence number
of cycle entered in columns 82-83.
SUNSPOT.LST -table of observed and predicted smoothed monthly means.
SUNSPOT.PLT -graph of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers for cycle 22.
on Hewlett-Packard LaserJet II printer (source code).
SUNJET.EXE -program to list graph and table of predicted sunspot numbers
on Hewlett-Packard LaserJet II printer (executable version).
*.FON -screen fonts for display of predicted sunspot number graph.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUNSPOT.DAT is the input file to the program; it contains the observed values.
SUNSPOT.LST is the output file, which contains predicted values. We use and
predict only smoothed monthly mean numbers, because we believe the errors are
too great to estimate any values more precise. Smoothed monthly means are
calculated by forming the arithmetic average of two sequential 12-month run-
ning means of monthly means. The McNish-Lincoln method estimates future num-
bers by adding a correction to the mean cycle that is proportional to the de-
parture of earlier values of the current cycle from the mean cycle.
In SUNSPOT.LST table entries with numbers in parentheses below them, denote
predictions by the McNich-Lincoln method. Adding the number in parentheses to
the predicted value forms the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval; sub-
tracting the number from the predicted value generates the lower limit. The
method generates useful estimates of smoothed monthly means for no more than 12
months ahead. Beyond a year the estimates regress rapidly toward the mean of
all 14 cycles used in the computation.
To run the program: Copy all files to a common directory on your disk. Type
sunspot to run the screen display. After viewing type sunjet to plot the file
on a Hewlett Packard printer. If you do not have a HP printer we suggest using
a screen capture program to capture the screen as a file, then dump it to
your printer using your favorite software.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL DATA CENTER Phone: (303) 497-6133
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Div (E/GC2) 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80303